Thursday, May 20, 2010
So should the Bruins.
As the B’s gathered their individual equipment and prepared to depart for the summer Tuesday, Thomas told the media horde in the Bruins locker room he is going to take some time to sort out his season and his future.
There is plenty to think about.
Less than a year ago, Thomas was receiving the greatest honor someone in his profession can achieve when he was awarded the Vezina Trophy as the best goalie in the NHL.
Now, many folks would claim he’s not the even the best goalie on his team.
With Tuukka Rask emerging as the Bruins starter late in the season and through the playoffs, there’s been plenty of speculation Rask represents the present and future promise of the team and Thomas should be traded.
The argument gathers force when buttressed by the fact Thomas has three years left on a $20 million contract with a $5 million annual salary cap hit. The plan would be to trade the Thomas, and in the process, create room to add either skilled forwards or defensive depth.
There is, of course, some appeal to this idea. The Bruins certainly need help in order to become a Stanley Cup contender and you don’t need a $5 million goalie sitting on the bench.
But there are a couple problems with the trade scenario. First, it’s not known how the market would value Thomas and taking on his contract. Whether a team would be willing to part with the type of player that actually adds value to the Bruins is unclear.
In addition, Thomas has a no trade clause and has yet to publically say he is ready to move on.
“Over the next month, I’ll kind of let things settle into my mind and then I’ll start worrying about some of that stuff, but not yet,” said Thomas. “Those kind of thoughts have to be thought over carefully and over a longer period of time. I haven’t had the luxury of doing that yet.”
Lets assume under the right circumstances Thomas would waive his no-trade clause. How eager should the Bruins be to part with a quality goaltender?
While Rask showed he has talent and composure when presented with significant playing time this season, there were signs of weariness in the playoffs. In total, Rask played a combined 56 regular season and playoff games this season. How would he hold up having to carry the bulk of the load over a full season? If Thomas is traded are the Bruins better off with one workhorse goalie and an untested minor league backup?
A heavy regular season of work can undermine playoff efficiency for NHL goalies. Of the eight goalies that played over 4,000 minutes this season, six made the playoffs, but only one — the Sharks Evgeni Nabokov — made it out of the first round.
The Bruins saw first hand that Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller, the likely Vezina Trophy winner this season, was not as sharp during the playoffs as he was during the regular season. Of course, Miller also played significant minutes during the Olympics, but the overall point remains the same — too much work can lessen a goalie’s performance.
So, if Thomas is moved, the Bruins face several risk factors.
Will Rask continue to be as effective in his second NHL season?
Does he have the endurance to handle an 82-game season?
What happens if Rask gets hurt?
There is also the possibility that Thomas will return to his top form, which could potentially match or better the play of Rask.
In 2006, rookie Ilya Bryzgalov supplanted Jean-Sebastien Giguere, a Conn Smythe Award winner (playoff MVP) as the Anaheim Ducks starting goalie. Bryzgalov led the Ducks to conference finals, posting three consecutive shutouts in the process.
But Bryzgalov began to falter in the conference final and Giguere played the last two playoff games for the Ducks. A few months later, Giguere and Bryzgalov went into training camp battling for the No. 1 spot, and by the end of the season, Giguere had emerged as the team’s top goalie while leading the Ducks to a Stanley Cup championship.
Don’t count Thomas out just yet.
“If you look over the course of my career every time I’ve had some sort of setback I’ve comeback even stronger, I think that’s what people should plan on because that’s what I plan on (doing),” he said Tuesday.
The central tenet of the “Trade Thomas” campaign is the notion Rask will continue to play at a highly elite level and Thomas will not. Yet, just because a young goalie has a hot hand for one late season run does not mean it will necessarily carry over.
Steve Mason put up league leading goaltending statistics while winning the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie last season, but he was significantly less effective this year.
If there is one position on a hockey team in which there is little margin for error, it’s goaltending. The Bruins might be well served to maintain their current position with two skilled goalies. Let Rask and Thomas head into camp and battle it out.
Sure, that scenario could create a potential scenario in which Thomas would be paid top dollar to be a backup. But so what?
Collectively, the Bruins would be committing $7 million to the goaltending position, an amount well spent if it helps assure that the team will be competitive.
Conversely, if the team trades Thomas and then loses Rask to injury or he falls into a sophomore slump, the whole $57 million team wide commitment is put in jeopardy of being wasted on a mediocre season.
So, if there’s a potential trade that would add proven NHL talent to the Bruins roster and Thomas would waive his no-trade clause, take the risk on a solo Rask. But if there is just a mediocre deal on the table, there are worse problems for a team to have then two high-quality goalies pushing each other to be as good as it gets.
